Predictions for the stretch run
Editor’s Note: I thought this was an exceptionally well written diary so I moved it to the front page. Thanks, TexSUN, for writing it and putting so much thought into it.
Ok, the trade deadline has passed, the project that has kept me working late every night this week has been successfully completed, and the migraine that made watching last night’s unexpectedly tedious battle with the Celtics a physically excruciating ordeal has subsided. Time to write that predictions diary I had planned to do earlier this week.
Here are some things I think will happen between now and the playoffs:
- The Suns will have one more long winning streak, but nothing close to the 15 and 17 game streaks from earlier this year. Somewhere between 8 and 10 games sounds about right.
- The Mavs will see their current streak end on March 14. (They’d better! :) )
- The Suns will beat all of the other “elite” teams at least once before the end of the season. I’m guessing it will be: Lakers twice, Dallas once, San Antonio once, and Utah once. They may win them all, but I think resting the starters may factor in with those games in April. (BTW, how many more games does LA need to lose before we can stop calling them an “elite” team?).
- The Mavs will finish with 67 games, and the Suns with 64 (barring further injuries to either team). The Mavs have a history of jumping out ahead with the best record then folding in the final weeks of the season, but I don’t think that’s going to happen this time. The Suns will make them earn it, though.
- Dirk Nowitzki will win MVP. It pains me to write this, because I think Steve Nash has done even more to deserve the award this year than ever before. If everyone on the team had come into the season as focused as he was, then the Suns would easily have the best record, even despite Dallas’s near-perfect run. But they don’t, and I think ultimately that will be the deciding factor. Also, despite Nash’s injury again illustrating how important he is to this team, it wouldn’t surprise me if that ends up working against him this time. I’ve already heard at least one writer say that Dirk’s durability is part of what makes him so valuable. I expect a few others might use Nash’s injury, and Dirk’s lack thereof, as a tie-breaker even if the Suns manage to somehow catch Dallas for the best record. But this could end up being a good thing in the end. If Dirk wins the MVP, then he (and the rest of his team) won’t go into the playoffs feeling snubbed. I’m sure Steve would be in favor of anything that increases the chance that he or one of his teammates would win the Finals MVP, and I don’t think he’d mind too much if his good friend gets the regular season award, regardless.
- Shawn Marion will finally get some love on the all-defensive team. He might even get serious consideration for defensive player of the year, although that may be less likely given that people still don’t think of the Suns as a great defensive team. But I think he’ll at least get on the all-defensive team, which is a step in the right direction.
- Leandro Barbosa will win 6th man of the year. Assuming Manu Ginobili moves back into the starting lineup, and Ben Gorden stays there, LB is a shoe-in. In a perfect world, he would get it regardless, as he has been far more of a 6th-man type than the other two. But we’ll see…
So there you have it. Those are my predictions for what could happen between now and the end of the regular season. What are yours?
Original post by TexSUN@brightsideofthesun.com and software by Elliott Back
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