Well… I know I’m not the only one who thinks the offseason came entirely too soon. I didn’t want to have to be writing this post until late June… but here it is, in the middle of May, that the Suns season ends and 07-08 starts.

The first order of business, the order of business that dictates quite a few of the Suns plans for the upcoming season… the draft. The lottery will be run on Tuesday (May 22nd) to determine who gets what draft pick. The actual process of drawing who gets to pick, and where, is a little bit more complicated than it necessarily ought to be, but the order looks like this. The Grizzlies have the highest chance of getting the #1 pick, followed by the Boston Celtics, the Milwaukee Bucks, the Atlanta Hawks, the Supersonics, the Portland Trailblazers, the Minnesota Timberwolves, and the Charlotte Bobcats. (Everyone else has basically no chance of getting the #1 pick.) Then once the first pick is selected, they select the #2 pick based on the same probability: The worse your record the higher your chances.

“Why should I care, the Suns had the 2nd best record in the regular season. We aren’t even in the lottery!” you yell loudly at me in between sobbing and thoughts of suicide. (Don’t do it!) Well, before Bryan “Big Pimpin’” Colangelo left us, he ensured that we’d have quite a few options this upcoming year by acquiring a top 3 protected pick from Atlanta. Bryan figured that we needed the pick more than the Hawks, who would undoubtedly draft a young and raw athletic small forward with it, so we might as well take it off their hands. So… we have the Atlanta Hawks pick as long as it’s not the #1, #2, or #3 pick. They are currently seeded #4 in the lottery pull, so they are pretty much perfectly situated to give us the exact pick we want them to get… the #4 pick. However, the lottery rarely works out like the ping pong balls would dictate, and the Hawks have a very good chance of landing in the 1-3 range picks, and also have a good chance of landing in the 4-6 range of picks. We want that #4 pick, a whole bunch, because if the Hawks get a top 3 pick in this particular draft, chances are they won’t suck so bad next year, and will end up giving us a high lottery pick next year as a best case scenario. (Next year the pick is completely unprotected, as a note.)

From there, we have a few salary issues coming to play. Our owner is relatively poor, as NBA owners go, and he is forced to be fiscally responsible. (He is also a big fan and has done basically everything he could to make us very good team, from a financial aspect, going out there and spending money that he didn’t have to.) Our biggest problem is… Pat Burke… his contract is done. And… *sniff*… he may not be coming back. I encourage the Suns to resign him though, as for a minimum player he’s a great locker room and practice guy, and the fans love him. And, on a more serious note, with all our draft pick contracts to sign, along with the extensions that are kicking in, we are looking at paying $12,000,000+ in luxury tax, while still having two roster spots to fill (assuming we don’t pick up our 2nd rounder). The financial difficulties, along with the fact that the Suns are a bit flawed as a team (sad as it may be), we have some holes to fill and some financial problems to fix, which means we should expect a couple big moves in the upcoming offseason.

Our first problem? Luxury tax… which has to get dealt with, unfortunately. There are some interesting trade scenarios to throw out there, but a couple things should be known:
1) Nash and Stoudemire are basically untouchable, mostly due to the fact that nobody will be willing to throw an offer at the Suns that the Suns will be willing to snatch up. Nash and Stoudemire’s value are both much higher in this system than they would be in most teams systems and it’s unlikely that anyone will be able to put forth an offer that the front office will snatch up.
2) The two people we extended last offseason, Leandro Barbosa and Boris Diaw, are unlikely to be traded. In Leandro’s case, it’s because we landed a great player with a great attitude and a great upside who is also great for our system for bargain bin prices on his long-term extension, so it’s unlikely that the Suns will be willing to part with him. Boris Diaw, however, will be hard to move for the exact opposite reason… the entirety of last year he stunk it up, put up one game worth mentioning the entire season/postseason. (Vs. Golden State, when he had a triple double… I went to that game. The Suns ought to look into having me attend all home games so Boris Diaw can have a triple double every night.) I’m sure management will throw Diaw’s name into deals to see if we can get rid of that awful deal, but I doubt anyone will bite. $9,000,000 a year for the next 5 years doesn’t sound too enticing for a guy who averaged 9.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.8 APG in 31.1 MPG.

Okay… so here are some feasible trade scenarios that the Suns may or may not look into. In all trade scenarios both teams must come within 25% of each other when all the combined salaries are shown, with a $100,000 chunk of leeway.

#1) Paul Pierce ($16,360,095) for Shawn Marion ($16,440,000) and James Jones ($2,904,000, player option for 08/09) and the #24 pick (Cleveland’s pick, by way of Boston). The Celtics get a player who can rebound (a bit of a problem for them), shoot (a problem for them…), play defense (A problem…), moves well off the ball (A pattern seems to have emerged here, as this is also a problem…), and doesn’t need to dominate the ball to be effective. They also get an athletic swing man in James Jones who can shoot and play good team defense, both glaring weaknesses for the Celtics, plus a 1st round pick in an extremely deep draft. The Suns get a wing player who can actually create his own shots, is a decent rebounder at the SG/SF spot, is a good shooter and isn’t a defensive liability. They also clear up a bit of the luxury tax issue we’ll be facing next year.

#2) Kevin Garnett ($22,000,000, player option for 08/09) and Eddie Griffin’s contract ($2,900,000, he has already been bought out of this contract but it’s still on the books and can be traded for) for Shawn Marion ($16,440,000) and Boris Diaw ($9,000,000), the #4 pick, and/or the #24/#29 picks. If they don’t want Boris Diaw it would be possible to package James Jones and Marcus Banks with similar impact. There’s a good chance that the Suns may catch Kevin McHale on one of the rare days that he’s competent and they may want to unload an unsavory long term contract (such as Mark Madsen, $2,420,000 through 09/10, or Trenton Hassell, $4,350,000 through 09/10, maybe even Mark Blount, $6,737,500 through 09/10. If I were Suns management, I wouldn’t touch the Marko Jaric or Mike James contracts with a 40 foot pole.) This deal is unlikely, but everyone in the league is probably making bids for Garnett, so this is the most likely one that we’ll see. Garnett is probably the most talented all-around player in the game, able to play both ends and has no real weaknesses to his game… I’d take him on the Suns in a heart beat. He wouldn’t even be forced into being the #1 option, which is a great thing for him as he’s a bit too passive to be a true #1 option, despite really being able to score at will with those insane fall away jumpers that he hits, which are impossible to guard by the way.

#3) Marcus Camby ($8,000,000 through 09/10) and Eduardo Najera ($4,952,382, next year is a player option which he’ll probably end up taking, expires after next season) for K
urt Thomas ($8,091,187, next year is a player option that he’ll probably take, expires the year after.), Erick Piatkowski ($1,219,590, expires next season) and James Jones ($2,904,000 through 08/09) and the #24 and/or #29 pick. This trade gives the Suns a monster interior shotblocking and rebounding presence, which we desperately desperately need, who can hit the midrange jumper and won’t interrupt the flow of the offense, and Eduardo Najera, a guy who plays presentable defense, is a decent shooter, and can finish at the hoop, and his contract expires next year. The Nuggets get an expiring contract in Kurt Thomas, who is a downgrade from Marcus Camby, but is a better man-to-man post defender and has a lot of playoff experience. They also get James Jones, a proficient outside shooter, which the Nuggets desperately need, who also plays good team defense and can block shots, which the Nuggets also need. They also get Erick Piatkowski in the deal, who is a veteran presence on a somewhat immature team who can hit the outside jumper, which the Nuggets are desperately looking for and desperately need. They also no longer have to worry about Marcus Camby’s long, long, long list of injuries, and won’t have to worry about having an $8 million dollar man riding the pine. It’s a risk/reward situation for the Suns that I’d be willing to take.

#4) Sign and trade for Rashard Lewis (Unsure, as he’ll be testing the free agent market next year and has already expressed his desire to opt out of his contract next year with his player option. Chances are he’ll command at least a $12,000,000/5 year contract, but very few teams have that kind of cap and he will probably have a sign-and-trade situation going on so the Sonics don’t lose ‘Shard for nothing.) Johan Petro ($1,077,120, team option after next year) and Luke Ridnour ($6,500,000 through 09/10) in exchange we send Marion ($16,440,000) and Boris Diaw ($9,000,000 through 11/12). The Suns save quite a bit of cap on the deal, and the Sonics get two proven players in Marion and Diaw instead of losing Shard for nothing. If they were just going to straight out lose ‘Shard to free agency, it would be the same as Luke Ridnour and Johan Petro for Marion and Diaw, so I can definitely see how they would be winners in this deal as well. Rashard Lewis provides a 6′10 wing player who can shoot, create off the dribble, has a very refined post game, and isn’t horrendous at defense. (He’s not good… but he’s not a liability, mostly due to his length and speed.)

Those are some of the deals that make the most sense and are feasible as the players are actually available. (Not sure on Marcus Camby’s availability, come to think of it, but he’s not *off* the market so I imagine the Nuggets would move him for the right package.) Any interesting trade ideas? Offseason moves? (Like making Iavaroni the head coach and letting D’Antoni run the front office?) Opinions on the state of the Suns in general? Well… throw them in the comments, I promise I’ll read them… can’t promise that the Suns front office will read them though, but maybe that’s a bit too much to ask. Maybe.

Original post by Zei_Zao_LS and software by Elliott Back

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