Webby’s Streak: The Odds are In!

By Matt Blake, August 22nd, 2007 2:32 PM

Brandon Webb goes for Orel's record…(AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Brandon Webb will head out to the mound tonight to continue to pursue Orel Hershiser’s major-league record for scoreless innings. He’ll need 17 more innings to tie. Some have even calculated the odds:

So, will he break the record? Well, if we only look at his scoreless inning % (78%) and the number of innings he has left (18), we’d be looking at about a 1 in 87 chance. But it’s not quite that simple….But what we are really interested in, is how often Webb will pitch a shutout in both of these games, and break the record. That number is 1.8%, or about 1 in 57.

So Webby has a 1.8% chance that he will break Orel’s record. Damn.

And it’s damn scary too…especially for the Dbacks fielders:

“You try not to think about that,” shortstop Stephen Drew said. “The more you think about that, the more pressure you put on yourself.”

Stop thinking about it and just play Stephen…How many times have I told you that???

The bottom line here though, is that we should all be going to the game tonight to watch history continue to unfold. Plus, it’d be nice to stop our 2 game slide (damn I hate when those happen). Webb + Brewers + Streak = Priceless.

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