Undisciplined ASU Falls to UCLA, Hurts Tournament Chances
I’d ike to use this space to briefly discuss the UCLA game, and then go into depth on ASU’s tournament hopes.
Make no mistake about it, despite a 21 point route, last night’s game was a perfectly winnable one for ASU. That is, if they had played disciplined, fundamental basketball.
I see them do the drills in warm-ups. They work on closeouts and sliding. Yet when the game starts, they quit closing out, leave their feet, and forget to step out on shooters. Because of this, UCLA was able to drain 10 3-pointers at a 50% clip.
It started with Jeff Pendergraph putting up a real stinker of a game, with just 5 points and 3 rebounds. He was hesitant to make a move to the basket early in the game, and he got extremely frustrated when double teamed, turning over the ball 6 times total. Herb Sendek finally took him out of the game for a while after Pendergraph failed to step out on a hot Darren Collison.
Derek Glasser also put up his worst game of the season. He made several bad passes that lead to turnovers, and just couldn’t help our offense get started. James Harden couldn’t get anything going on offense either.
Rihards Kuksiks is turning into a nice offensive weapon, but he’s still been lackluster on defense. He doesn’t have the lateral quickness to stop someone from driving around him, and he hasn’t done a good job of stepping out on shooters. Still, along with some of Eric Boateng’s work, Kuksiks was one of the few bright spots for this game.
UCLA is a good team, and this was an expected loss. It’s frustrating, however, to see ASU blow one that would have likely locked them in for March Madness.
So where does this leave ASU in the hunt for the tournament?
The Sundevils are currently 5th in the Pac10 with 7-8 record. They hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over UA (also currently 7-8).
Over the past five season, the Pac10 has averaged just about four and a half teams making it to the tourney. This season, the Pac10 is probably the strongest it’s been in a while. Therefore, the team with the 6th best credentials will probably make it in. The 7th team will probably be on the outside looking in.
UCLA, Stanford, USC and Washington State are in. All are well above the .500 mark in the conference, and hold RPIs in the top 35.
UA currently holds an RPI of 21, thanks to a solid SOS. a .500 conference record probably makes them a lock, though it likely means a win up in Oregon at the Pit (no easy task). Even at 8-10, they still have a good chance to make it thanks to that RPI.
ASU is the 6th team right now, followed by Cal and Oregon. Washington and Oregon State’s at-large hopes are all but dead. Whichever team is able to earn the final bye game (top 6 seeds in the Pac10 tourney) will have a huge advantage.
So know let’s look at how the regular season is likely to turn out:
Arizona- Last 3 games: UCLA, @ Oregon St., @ Oregon
UCLA will be too much for UA to handle, but Oregon State should be an easy win. UA handled Oregon last time, and I would expect them to take this game as well. Projected finish: 2-1 (9-9)
Arizona St.- Last 3 games: USC, @Oregon, @Oregon St.
Sun Devil fans always seem to show up in numbers against USC, and Wells Fargo Arena should be electric. I expect this to end in the Devils favor. Oregon State should also be an easy win. Oregon is also winnable, but the Devils haven’t done well on the road this season. Projected finish: 2-1 (9-9)
Cal- Last 3 games: Washington, @USC, @UCLA
Cal had a solid season, but it’s unlikely they can beat USC or UCLA on the road. Projected finish: 1-2 (7-11)
Oregon- Last 3 games: @Oregon St., Arizona St., Arizona
Just like everyone, Oregon should be able to handle Oregon State. Also expect a split with the Arizona school (likely with a loss on senior night to UA). They are in position to take all three, though. Projected finish: 2-1 (8-10)
In this situation, ASU would have the #5 seed in the Pac10 tournament, locking up a first round bye. In this circumstance, they would almost assuredly play USC at the Staple Center. Unfortunately, that is essentially a home court match for USC, so ASU would likely lose their first game.
Oregon would face Oregon State in their first matchup, before facing Stanford (whom they have already beaten) in the second round. If Oregon could pull off that upset, they could pull ahead of ASU on the bubble.
In the end, though, it’s likely that ASU takes the final spot for the Pac10. Without a win in the Pac10 tourney though, they will probably have to sweat it out until Selection Sunday.
As one of the final teams to make the cut, I expect to see ASU draw an 11 (possibly 12) seed. They certainly could match up well at that position with a mid-major team like Butler or Drake.
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Posted by Corey
Corey Grodner grew up in Albuquerque, NM, and is currently a business major at Arizona State University. A lifelong sports fan, Corey loves basketball and football, but is especially passionate about ASU athletics in general. He is very knowledgeable about sports, and understands the intricacies of the games he covers. Having interned for the University of New Mexico's athletic program, he brings a unique perspective of the inner workings of a college athletic department. He loves to write about sports, and hopes to provide ASU fans with all kinds of interesting information and analysis.
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