Arizona State is now sitting uncomfortably on the bubble after splitting on their trip up to Oregon. Expecting a win against OU would have been a stretch, but stealing a victory from the Ducks could have all but guaranteed a tournament birth for the Sun Devils.

Unfortunately, I was not able to see either of the games (the Oregon game was not televised and I was in Rocky Point for spring break during the Oregon State game). I won’t be doing a full review for those games because of this. It’s unlikely we learned much new about the team anyway, other than that we might be able to count on some bench points from Jamelle McMillan and Eric Boateng of the bench in the near future.

Over the past few days, I have spent seemingly countless hours breaking down ASU’s tournament hopes from every possible angle, but let’s start with the obvious: If they beat USC on Thursday, they are in. Even with a weak RPI, that would give ASU six total wins against the RPI top 50 (plus another against OU’s RPI of 53). The tournament committee would not be able to overlook those big wins.

Now what we have to look at is what happens if ASU doesn’t beat USC.

A couple of weeks ago, I predicted this scenario:

Sun Devil fans always seem to show up in numbers against USC, and Wells Fargo Arena should be electric. I expect this to end in the Devils favor. Oregon State should also be an easy win. Oregon is also winnable, but the Devils haven’t done well on the road this season. Projected finish: 2-1 (9-9)

In this situation, ASU would have the #5 seed in the Pac10 tournament, locking up a first round bye. In this circumstance, they would almost assuredly play USC at the Staple Center. Unfortunately, that is essentially a home court match for USC, so ASU would likely lose their first game.

As one of the final teams to make the cut, I expect to see ASU draw an 11 (possibly 12) seed.

Reading many experts, an 11 seed would seem to be a stretch without a win against USC. Let’s investigate, and discover the likely destination for ASU for ourselves.

For my research, I used several websites as references for bubble teams (espn.com and cbs.sportsline.com), but my RPI and schedule data is coming from realtimerpi.com.

Now the first thing I wanted to look at in my research was ASU’s low RPI of just 76. This is the worst RPI, easily, of any bubble team. So the key was to discover what kind of precedent in previous years for at-large bids with low RPIs.

As is shown by this table, the low RPI can vary greatly from year to year. This does prove, however, that an RPI of 76 is not an insurmountable hurdle.

I next wanted to see how each of these teams overcame their low RPIs. Seton Hall’s RPI was high enough to warrant strong consideration on its own, so we’ll ignore them. Air Force was able to amass a terrific record (22-7), and winning 13 in a row in dominating fashion during the season. Out of conference, they only beat one team in the top-100 RPI, and had a dismal SOS that ranked 229^th.

Both Stanford cases are the most similar to ASU’s situation. Each year, they were able to overcome a low RPI and average conference record with some big wins (over Washington-3 and Arizona-8 in ’05 and UCLA-2, Oregon-21, Washington State-26, and USC-40 in ’07).

Now that we’ve established ASU’s low RPI isn’t insurmountable, and that their big wins over Xavier, Stanford, USC, Arizona (twice), and Oregon would be enough to get them an at-large bid in some years, we need to look at the other bubble teams ASU is competing with. We must figure out how many spots are truly up for grabs, and approximate where the Sun Devils rank among the teams fighting for these final spots.

According to cbs.sportsline.com, 42 teams should be safe, regardless of what happens, plus ten more spots for the winners of other conferences. Looking over their list of 42 teams, I agree that each of these teams have essentially, or officially, clinched tournament bids. That leaves 13 open spots.

Next, there are a few teams who look like locks as well, barring unforeseen events. These teams are Arkansas, Kentucky, Baylor, and Kansas State. Arkansas has the credentials across the board. Kentucky has played great down the stretch (which the committee loves). Baylor just needs a win against Colorado to basically lock up their spot. Kansas State has 20 wins and finished third in the Big 12.

That takes four more spots away, leaving just nine at this point.

That’s not all we have to take away, though. The Mountain West and Atlantic 10 will also each get at least 1 more bid, regardless of what happens. For arguments sake, we’ll give those spots to UNLV and Massachusetts for now.

And now we are down to just 7 open spots ASU is in the running for. For these spots, they’ll be competing with 14 other teams I consider to be on the bubble: Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Villanova, Texas A&M, Arizona, Oregon, Ole Miss, New Mexico, Illinois State, Dayton, St. Joseph’s, Temple, and South Alabama. I have eliminated VCU, Florida, Florida State, and Maryland from the conversation. It will take a lot for any of those teams to make it.

Now here’s where it starts to get a little bit less cut and dry. I’m not projecting what would happen if the season were over now, I’m projecting what will happen once the season is actually over.

Therefore, I will now discuss the bubble teams I think will play themselves into, or out of, the tournament.

Villanova plays Syracuse, with the winner getting a bid, and the loser landing a spot in the NIT. I have Virginia Tech out, as they don’t have great credentials, and will likely lose to Miami (FL), who they lost to at home this season, in their first tournament game. New Mexico should get in as well with a win against Utah. UNM, with and RPI of 50 and 25 wins should make the tournament. If they beat UNLV, the Rebels would replace the Lobos on the bubble, but the committee has generally liked to have 3 MWC teams in. I think that will be the case this year. Dayton, Temple, and St. Joseph’s all need to make serious noise in the A10. More than likely, Dayton will get the third and final bid for that conference.

Taking all this into consideration, we now have a likely bubble of 4 spots for 8 teams.

So where does ASU rank among these teams left over?

Arizona is one team that will almost assuredly have a better than the Sun Devils in the committee’s eyes. They get the opportunity to pick up an extra Pac10 win today against Oregon State. They have ten wins against the RPI top-100, and the #1 strength of schedule. Their history in the tournament will also help them.

Oregon is the team that should definitely end up below ASU in the pecking order. OU was swept by Washington State, and that is who the Ducks will face in the Pac10 tournament. Despite a higher RPI, Oregon’s resume does not match up with ASU’s.

This leaves us with Ohio State, Texas A&M, South Alabama, Ole Miss, and Illinois State battling with ASU for the final three spots. A likely Ohio State loss Michigan State this week would likely put them after ASU. Illinois State’s 0-5 record against the RPI top-50 isn’t going to bode well against ASU either, considering all of the Sun Devil’s big wins. South Alabama is probably right on the same level as ASU. My guess, though, is that if the committee has to choose between the two, ASU would get the advantage. Schools in major conferences are usually favored. Texas A&M is also right on the same tier as ASU. They would likely get the nod over ASU, having been ranked for the majority of the season. Ole Miss went sub-.500 in a weaker conference.

Last 4 In: Arizona, Texas A&M, Arizona State, South Alabama (in order)

This would leave ASU with very little wiggle room. If a couple more instances like Gonzaga losing to San Diego happen, ASU could definitely be left out of the tournament.

Right now, however, I think I was pretty close with my original prediction. ASU will be one of the final 4 teams in if they lose to USC. My guess is as a #12 seed.

I know there is a lot of raw data and possibly confusing analysis. Ask for any clarifications in the comments section. I will be happy to respond.

Join the discussion at The Locker Room Forum. Arizona Sports 24/7.

Posted by Corey
Corey Grodner grew up in Albuquerque, NM, and is currently a business major at Arizona State University. A lifelong sports fan, Corey loves basketball and football, but is especially passionate about ASU athletics in general. He is very knowledgeable about sports, and understands the intricacies of the games he covers. Having interned for the University of New Mexico's athletic program, he brings a unique perspective of the inner workings of a college athletic department. He loves to write about sports, and hopes to provide ASU fans with all kinds of interesting information and analysis.
http://azsportshub.com

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