ASU and Sun Devil Nation have been bubble watching for the past few days, and what have we learned? Well… not a whole lot. The size of and number of teams on the bubble may have been whittled down, but Arizona State is still right on the fringe.

As far as I'm concerned, there are 5 bubble spots up for grabs, and 10 teams fighting for those spots. Some experts have teams like UNLV and Dayton on the bubble. UNLV is in, Dayton is out. I would bet a lot of money on that. So I have narrowed it down further.

My bubble teams are: Arizona, Arizona State, Illinois State, Mississippi, Ohio State, Oregon, South Alabama, VCU, Villanova, Virginia Tech.

Now, I would also be extremely shocked if Mississippi or VCU made it in over any of these teams. Mississippi was below .500 in their conference, and lost their first round tournament game. They also have 6 losses to teams with triple digit RPIs. VCU just has too many questionable losses, and not enough good wins. So that leaves us with 5 spots for 8 teams.

Among these teams, ASU has the most wins (5) over top-50 RPI teams. They are also the only team to win a game against a top-10 RPI team. They also have 7 wins against top-100 RPI teams, tying them with Villanova for third among bubble teams, behind Arizona and Ohio State.

ASU, Villanova, and Arizona are also the only three teams to beat multiple opponents currently ranked in the AP top-25 with two a piece.

On top of this, Arizona State is the only team in this group to have just one loss to a team with a triple digit RPI. That loss was to Washington, who also beat UCLA. Every other team has at least two losses. Illinois State has 4 losses in this category, and that includes one to Eastern Michigan, with an RPI of 212. The other team's losses go as follows: Arizona (2), Illinois St. (4), Ohio State (3), Oregon (2), South Alabama (3), Villanova (3), and Virginia Tech (3).

So ASU has more big wins than anyone, almost as many good wins as anybody, and fewer questionable losses than anybody. Yet somehow, their RPI is significantly lower than any other bubble team. It's an anomaly. Hopefully the committee treats it as such, and throws the RPI out of consideration with ASU.

So what teams should take those last five spots? Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Villanova, and Ohio State.

However, I highly doubt that is how it turns out. Of those five, Arizona and Villanova are the closest to locks to make it. The other three could vary.

I think South Alabama makes it, despite losing twice to Middle Tennessee State, and winning very few big games. Their record and RPI are probably too good to leave out. I think Illinois State making it would be a travesty, and I think the committee will realize this. They have way too many bad losses, and too few good wins. Virginia Tech's resume also screams NIT. However, they are a team that is peaking in March, which is something very few bubble teams are doing. The committee loves teams that do that. I expect them to be either the last team in, or last team out (according to the committee). Right now, I think they will be out. Here's my prediction for what actually happens.

Last 5 in (in order): Arizona, Villanova, South Alabama Ohio State, Arizona State

Last 5 out (in order): Virginia Tech, Oregon, Illinois State, VCU, Mississippi

I am feeling pretty good about ASU getting the last spot. Of course, this all comes with a big IF. If Illinois or Georgia take their conference championship, ASU will more than likely be headed to the NIT.

Go Badgers and Razorbacks!

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