D-Backs Pitching Controversy on the Horizon? Not With This Solution
With Doug Davis’ return from thyroid cancer slated for next week it poses an interesting problem for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Who is the odd man out?
It shouldn’t be Doug Davis. He pitched well before his health problems and sorry but you can’t Wally Pipp a guy who just went through cancer surgery.
It obviously won’t be the staff ace Brandon Webb who is 8-0 with a 2.41 ERA nor will it be Dan Haren who is 4-2 with a 3.04 ERA in his first year in the national league.
Micah Owings has had an impressive start to the season going 4-1 and his bat warrants him being in the lineup more not less.
So that brings us to the future hall of famer Randy Johnson and the young fireballer Max Scherzer.
While Scherzer has pitched 14 1/3 fewer innings than Johnson (two starts and one relief appearance) he has used his brief time in the bigs to showcase what he can do. He has a K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings for you non baseball stat freaks) that is 11.30 and an ERA at 3.14. He has lighting quick stuff with a fastball that tops out at 98 and a two seamer that is clocked at a blistering 94.
As for Johnson he has not pitched horribly this season coming off his second back surgery in as many years. In six starts he is 3-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 32 strikeouts. In his six starts he has given up 4 or more earned runs four times.
If you are Josh Byrnes and Bob Melvin do you send Scherzer back to the bullpen in long relief? Do you move Randy to the pen as your left handed specialist or as your closer?
The answer to both is no. You cannot justify having Scherzer in the bigs to sit and not pitch. It risks slowing his development which is detrimental to the organization. You also can’t send RJ to the pen. He is 13 wins short of 300 and has earned the right to start.
With that said the only option is to send Scherzer down to Triple-A Tucson to re-join their starting rotation right? Wrong.
Here is a radical idea, a 6-man rotation. Yes it’s nutty and unheard of but so was the idea of a home run hitting pitcher (see Micah Owings), calling up a 19 year old outfielder (see Ken Griffey Junior and Justin Upton) and having purple and teal as your team colors (OK two out of three ain’t bad).
The idea of a 6-man rotation has two benefits. You can limit the number of innings pitched by Scherzer and you can give Randy Johnson extra time to rest his back and create less travel for him.
How it would work is Johnson would be your “Sunday starter”. The idea is not a new one it was implemented back in the 1920’s and 30’s for the exact purpose of providing older players extra rest and having a pitcher ready to pitch one end of a double header. While Johnson would start Sundays Scherzer and Davis would fill in on his starts during the week and the only time Brandon Webb or Dan Haren’s schedule would change is if his next start were to fall on a Sunday.
Yes it’s crazy but hey who would have thought a team with a negative run differential and most starters who weren’t old enough to remember Barry Bonds as a skinny ASU Sun Devil would have won the 2007 NL West crown? Josh Byrnes, so maybe he’s just crazy enough to try it.
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Posted by Greg Esposito
Co-founder of AzSportsHub.com. Greg provides the sometimes serious, sometimes sarcastic and always interesting takes on Arizona sports (at least we hope). Whether it’s on In The Zona with Matt or in his column Greg reports, rants and raves about whatever is in the news for Arizona Sports.
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I don’t think this will work for a couple of reasons. First off is consistency. Pitchers such as Dan Haren and Brandon Webb are creatures of habit and like to whenever possible stay on a 5-day throwing plan meaning they start every 5 days. Going to a 6-man rotation immediately changes that. If Brandon Webb is 8-0 going things the way they have been do you really want to change his routine? If you come back and say “put Webb and Haren on every 5 days and adjust the other 4″ then you will undoubtedly have times where people are skipped (it happens with a 5-man rotation it will happen more often with a 6-man). This again messes with everyone’s routine and disrupts how they are accustomed to working and being successful. This is Scherzer’s second professional season and as such he is not yet used to the grind of 162-game schedule. With a young arm such as his you need to limit his innings so that he doesn’t over-extend himself leading to problems down the road. This year he probably should not pitch more than 140 innings total. There is still a lot of uncertainty about whether Max is better suited to be a starter or closer. By moving him to the bullpen it will allow the team to monitor his progress and see how he does in a variety of situations. Last Sunday was a prime example. If Davis had been back and Scherzer was in the bullpen it would have been Max starting the game in place of Randy so he would still get an occasional start. The question that was not asked in the article was if you don’t send Max back to Triple-A, who do you send to Tucson? I was under the impression that the other pitchers were out of options meaning someone would be exposed to the waiver wire. You might like Max Scherzer over Edgar Gonzalez but you don’t want to lose Gonzalez to another team with nothing in return and you don’t necessarily want to trade him since you would need his arm if Davis doesn’t come back well or Randy gets hurt. I think what’s best for the organization as a whole is that Max may be sent down but with the understanding that if a roster spot opens up he would be the first one called.
Jeff,
I 100% agree with you. A 6 man rotation was inventive, and could work with 6 mid-teir pitchers. But when you have 2 Aces in the rotation, one of them who is 8-0 and having a hell of a season, you don’t want to mess with that. Greg’s plan tries to account for that, but man a 6 man rotation seems more messy than anything. And this is a good problem to have too. I’d rather have RJ pitching as the 4-5 starter that he basically is right now. Scherzer going back down to AAA doesn’t hurt him and if anyone goes down on the staff, bullpen or starters in the next few days or weeks, you bring him back up. The 6 man rotation just makes my eyes glaze over…
Jeff,
I think your point about pitchers being creatures of habit is a good one. Starting pitchers are some of the most superstitious athletes in sports. I do however think that a guys like Owings, Davis and Scherzer could make the adjustment.
Owings last year was usually the pitcher who would get skipped in the rotation so he is used to having a strange number of days between starts plus he is still young.
Davis has already had about as big of a disruption as a player can have to his routine so it may be an ideal time to try something like this with him. He may also benefit from the extra time to physically recover between starts.
Scherzer has said he doesn’t care what his routine is, whether it be in the bullpen or starting, that he just wants to pitch.
To your point about pitchers being skipped like you said it happens in a 5 man rotation. The benefit is that skipping those starts would help to hold Scherzer under that 140 innings threshold you stated.
The guy you send down isn’t a pitcher. You send either Hammock or Montero down. There is no need for this team to carry three catchers. Hammock has had only 21 at bats this year. Hardly worth having on the big league roster.
Like I said it’s a crazy idea. I just think it’s worth really thinking through it if you are Josh Byrnes.
Valid points and a great example of thinking outside the box trying to come up with a solution to have too many good pitchers. I am sure there are probably 31 other franchises that would love to be in this situation right now and knock on wood the Diamondbacks have this luxury all of 2008.
I did want to respond to Greg’s comment about sending down a position player. I think that would be a bad idea. It leaves your bench exposed by minimizing the number of players you have for situational hitting. While I agree Hammock has been used sparingly, having him up has allowed Melvin to pinch hit with Montero or Snyder (whoever is not in the line-up that night) earlier in the game without having to worry about burning his extra backstop. Hammock also provides great depth as he can play pretty much every position and is fast (for a catcher). I’m not sure why the Diamondbacks do not use him more. My confidence in his hitting is slightly higher right now than with Chris Burke (although Burke came through last night with a bloop single to right). You couldn’t send Montero down, he is having a very good offensive year even though his stats don’t blow you away he is getting timely hits. He also provides a left-handed pinch hitter which the Diamondbacks do need in this division. The other problem with sending down a position player is that you have Chad Tracy currently doing a rehab assignment in Tucson. The Diamondbacks anticipate activating him after he regains some stamina and about 40-50 at bats. By sending Robby Hammock down and keeping Max Scherzer on the roster all you are doing is postponing the inevitable in making a pitching decision in another week or two when Tracy is ready.
I agree with the ramifications of sending a position player down. The bench is thin as it is but if Bob Melvin isn’t going to utilize a guy like Hammock than why not carry another pitcher he will utilize. I also think a lot of people over value Edgar Gonzalez. He has been given every opportunity to succeed in this organization. He is your typical Quadruple-A player. If Byrnes can find a taker for him now I say go for it.
In the end I think you are probably right. The D-Backs will go with a conventional 5 man rotation and will send Scherzer down because of the numbers game. In a perfect world the backs would have all of the starters in the rotation.
By the way love nowhitting.com