The Arizona Diamondbacks trail the L.A. Dodgers by 3 games with 5 left to play, so it would take not only a colossal choke job by the Dodgers, but the Diamondbacks would basically have to win all 5–something they’ve achieved only once this season, and that was back in May!

So really, the only intrigue left in the 2008 season for the boys in Sedona red is whether or not Mark Reynolds will become the first major leaguer with 200 strikeouts in a season, and whether or not Brandon Webb will win his 2nd Cy Young Award. There’s been a lot of speculation on who will win the hardware. Webb, or San Francisco right-hander Tim Lincecum.

Lincecum didn’t help his cause by getting shelled by Colorado on Tuesday night, which raised his ERA to 2.66, now 2nd in the league behind Johan Santana (2.64).

When considering criteria for winning a Cy Young, most people immediately throw out the notion the the winner must play for a winning team. Relief pitchers are usually dismissed on principle, unless they have an unbelievable season, or there’s no starters that are deserving of the award that year. So using those pre-existing criteria, the award usually hinges on victories, strikeouts and ERA. Which is most important? Nobody seems to have the answer to that question. So, I did a little research to figure it out. I looked at the last 28 Cy winners from the National League, from 1980 to 2007 as a basis for my research.

Currently, Webb leads the National League in wins with 22 (which is 5 more than his closest competitor), ranks 9th in the league with a 3.24 ERA, and is tied for 10th with 176 strikeouts. He is scheduled to start once more in ‘08, Saturday vs. Colorado at Chase Field. Lincecum is 2nd in victories with 17, 2nd in ERA with a mark of 2.66, and leads the senior circuit with 252 strikeouts, 46 more than 2nd place Edinson Volquez of Cincinnati.

The easiest and most sure-fire way to win the Cy Young Award is to lead the league in all three categories, pitching’s Triple Crown. Three times since 1980 has that happened, and all three times that pitcher won the Cy Young Award. Jake Peavy of the Padres did it last season, the Diamondbacks’ very own Randy Johnson accomplished it in 2002, and Dwight Gooden of the Mets did it in 1985. Neither Webb nor Lincecum falls into that category this year.

Fifteen times in the last 28 seasons has the pitcher who led the NL in wins has won the award. Based on this information–advantage Webb. Four pitchers have led the National League with at least 22 wins and not won the Cy since 1980. Dontrelle Willis (2005), Matt Morris (2001), Curt Schilling (2001) and John Burkett (1993) all had exactly 22 wins and nothing to show for it. Schilling also won 23 games in 2002, and finished 2nd to teammate Johnson, who had 24 victories. Only 7 times since 1980 has a pitcher who only led the league in victories went on to win the Cy Young Award, most recently in 2006 when, interestingly enough, Webb did it. Webb also tied 5 other pitchers with the most wins that season with 16.

The pitcher who led the National League in strikeouts has won the award 11 times since 1980, but only twice has it occurred when a pitcher led only in strikeouts. Randy Johnson (2000) and Fernando Valenzuela (1981) accomplished that.

And only ten times has the pitcher with the league’s lowest ERA become the Cy Young Award winner for that season. And, only twice has the pitcher who led only in ERA, and neither of the other two triple crown categories won it. Pedro Martinez (1997) and Greg Maddux (1993) were the pitchers to do that.

But there are pitchers who have not led in any of the three Triple Crown categories who have won it. Six times, including 3 relief pitchers, this has occurred. St. Louis’ Chris Carpenter (2005), Houston’s Roger Clemens (2004) and Chicago’s Rick Sutcliffe accomplished this.

Lincecum has a chance still to lead in both strikeouts and ERA, which would put him in really good shape to win the Cy. Eight times a pitcher has led in two of the three categories, and gone on to hoist the plaque. Notably, in the two categories that Lincecum could still lead the league, three times a pitcher who has led in those categories has gone on to win an award. Randy Johnson did it twice, in 1999 and 2001, and ballscuffer knuckleballer Mike Scott of Houston did it in 1986.

By the way, the only player to ever lead two of the three Triple Crown categories and not win the Cy Young since 1980 is none other than Nolan Ryan. In 1987, Ryan led the National League with 270 strikeouts and an ERA of 2.76. He finished 5th in the voting that year, mostly because of his 8-16 record! I guess maybe that proves the point that a statistic I didn’t calculate, run support, is the most important number of them all. I think Ryan may have been a little stand-offish in the Astros’ clubhouse that season. I know I would have been. How about scoring the guy some runs?

Which brings us to Webb. The statistic that boggles my mind is that he was able to notch 22 wins (at least) on a team that was really anemic offensively for most of the season. And he’s had a bullpen that has let him down on occasion as well. With any help, Webb has 24, 25 or even 26 wins right now, and I’m not even thinking about writing an article on who’s going to win the NL Cy Young Award.

Tim Lincecum is a phenomenal young pitcher, a baby-faced assassin. I predict he’ll win more than one Cy Young during his career. His first just won’t be coming this season. Brandon Webb is the rightful winner for 2008.

Now, if the voters give it to Brad Lidge or C.C. Sabathia, I’m going to be really pissed. And if that happens, please disregard this entire article.

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