In a conference that was completely turned upside down by Oregon State’s shocking upset win over USC one week ago, this Saturday’s matchup between Arizona State and California holds a lot of importance in determining how the Pac-10 standings will look in early December.

Outside of last year’s 31-20 win, some ASU’s ugliest recent performances have come against Cal. In the 4 previous games against the Golden Bears (2002, 2003, 2004 and 2006–they didn’t play in 2005), the Bears went 4-0 and outscored the Devils 182-82. In the last 3 losses, ASU has committed 14 turnovers, and twice allowed more than 40 points in the first half. Arizona State hasn’t won in Strawberry Canyon since 1997. I’m painting a picture here, and it’s not a pretty one for ASU.

Jeff Tedford’s Golden Bears come into this game at 3-1, but they’ve been a part of the head-scratching results the Pac-10 has posted this season. Cal opened the season with a nice win against Michigan State, then routed an awful Washington State team. Then on September 13th, they traveled to Maryland, and lost 35-27 to a very mediocre Maryland team, before returning home to beat Colorado State last week.

There is unrest at the quarterback position, where Tedford has reopened the competition for the starting job. Kevin Riley, who won the battle with incumbent Nate Longshore over the summer, is in danger of losing his job, despite the fact that he’s 4th in the conference with a passer rating of 132.88. Riley struggled last week against Colorado State, competing just 6 of 13 for 59 yards and a touchdown. Longshore, who has played in three games this year, went 9 of 13 for 100 yards and two touchdown passes. Riley is still listed as the starter in Cal’s official press release this week, with Longshore second-string, and freshman Brock Mansion third. Brock Mansion? Sounds like an estate where a murder might take place on a rainy night, where several strangers with colorful names who were invited to dinner are immediate suspects. I don’t know, just a thought.

Tailback Jahvid Best, who is 5th in the Pac-10 with 421 rushing yards, and averaged 7.1 yards per carry, is out due to injury. There’s good news and bad news in that for Arizona State. Obviously Best is a good player, but his replacement Shane Vereen is averaging a whopping 8.0 yards per carry. Both Best and Vereen have ripped off touchdown runs of more than 80 yards this season. ASU’s longest run of the season is 20 yards. In fact the Sun Devils have only 11 carries this season of 10 yards or more, three of those are by quarterback Rudy Carpenter and another one is by wideout Kyle Williams. Keegan Herring’s return will help the Sun Devils in this area, as he is the lone big play threat at the tailback position on the ASU roster.

Cal has been solid offensively and defensively this season. The Bears rank 2nd in overall offense, averaging 445 yards and over 43 points per game. Regardless of who the quarterback is on Saturday, Cal will make it a point to throw to their backs out of the backfield. Best is their leading receiver on the season with 14 catches, while Vereen has snared 10 balls.

On defense, the Bears rank 3rd in the conference, yielding 19 points and 304 yards per contest. The Bears have forced 10 turnovers in 4 games, and have scored 2 defensive touchdowns. Anthony Felder, a senior linebacker, leads Cal in tackles with 31, while Syd’quan Thompson and Zack Follett each have 2 sacks apiece. California leads the conference in turnover margin at +4.

ASU’s Rudy Carpenter leads Pac-10 QBs with a passer rating of 165.4, and he’s done it without much of a running game this season. In fact, the Devils rank dead last in the conference, putting up a meager 89 yards per game, and averaging just 3.1 yards per pop.

The sting ASU feels from losing 2 games already is soothed by a couple of factors. First, that the losses were out of the conference, and two, that USC’s apparent stranglehold on the Pac-10 has been diminished greatly.

This is a huge game for Arizona State. It’s a chance for them to win in a hostile environment where they haven’t played well in recent years. It’s a chance to get back on the football field after two consecutive losses, and it’s a chance for someone to step up on both sides of the football and announce themselves as game changers. Nobody’s done that yet for the Sun Devils this season. This might be their last chance to do it.

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